Bush says “I told you so,” but…

Energy policy - Bush says "I told you so," but what are the two conditions for being able to say that? 1. You have to put out a set of recommendations. Check, Bush put out an energy policy very early in his first term.  2. You have to be able to say that your advice was not followed. D'oh!

Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said, as part of an online interactive forum on March 9, 2005, “During his second week in office, the President put together a task force to address America’s energy challenges… And over the past four years, we have implemented 95 percent of those recommendations.” [emphasis added]

Bill O'Reilly is (gulp!) correct! Karl Rove claimed on O'Reilly's program that:

"This president and this administration put more into alternative energy research than any administration in history by a significant factor."

...

O’Reilly [correctly] questioned Rove’s assertion, saying “maybe that’s true and maybe it isn’t.”

No, Rove's assertion is not correct.

Since 1980, federal spending on energy research has declined, and since the mid-1990s, “R&D spending has been stagnant for renewable energy and energy efficiency.”

Bush correctly asserted in his 2006 State of the Union Address that America was addicted to oil. Unfortunately, he never followed that up by doing anything effective about it. According to the White House, the best energy policy was simply to trust the market (PDF). BTW, John McCain agrees with that idea.

Poll - Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. June 19-23, 2008. N=1,233 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

"Has the recent rise in gas and oil prices caused you or your family any financial hardship, or not?"
		Yes	No	Unsure
		%	%	%
	6/19-23/08	70	29	1
"Who do you think, if anyone, is to blame for the rising fuel prices: the oil companies that are making large profits, or commodities speculators, or turmoil in the Middle East, or OPEC and other foreign producers of oil, or the Bush administration, or the demand for more oil from countries such as China, or is there some other person or group that you blame for the rising fuel prices?" Up to two responses accepted.
			%
	Bush administration		29
	Oil companies		25
	Commodities speculators		13
	Countries such as China		11
	Foreign producers		9
	Middle East turmoil		8
	Other		4
	No one (vol.)		1
	Unsure		21
"Do you think the Bush administration has taken sufficient steps to control rising oil and gas prices and ease its affect on American families, or has the Bush administration not done enough?"
		Taken Sufficient Steps	Not Done Enough	Unsure
		%	%	%
	6/19-23/08	10	81	9

Iraq War vs Climate Change

Is our president careless about all money? Does he regard all money the way Mrs Howell of Gilligan's Island did ("Oh deah, it's only money")?  Ha, ha, ha! No, don't be silly!  President Bush is very concerned that the bill for fixing Climate Change might run the US as much as $6 Trillion! Oh, and get this:

"As you can imagine, our opposition to this will be quite strong and we'll be making these points throughout the week," said Keith Hennessey, director of Bush's National Economic Council.

U.S. gross domestic product could be reduced by as much as 7 percent in the year 2050 and gasoline prices -- already at record highs in the United States -- could soar by as much as 53 cents a gallon by 2030, he said. [emphases added]

Gas was an average of $1.91 a gallon between 2000 & 2006, but went to $2.80 in 2007. Price for crude oil went from $50 a barrel in 2005 to $68 in 2007. Now oil is about $140 a barrel and around $4.00 a gallon.

Of course, one of the really major problems with the economy today are the "bubbles" that arise and burst. First there was the "dot-com bubble," then the "housing market" bubble, now it looks as though we've got a "hydrocarbon bubble" in the making. Major problem that this article identifies, of course, is the extremely unequal distribution of wealth, with those at the top of the income ladder making all kinds of money and with those in the middle and bottom making much less. Wealthy people with "money to burn" are much more wasteful than are people who spend to survive and to live decent lives. Our current president, with his tax policies, is very much in favor of giving the wealthy ever more money. The Republican scuttling of the "windfall profits" tax has everything to do with Ronald Reagan's old "Reverse Robin Hood" policies of taking from the non-wealthy and giving to the wealthy.  America then gets an increasingly top-heavy economy that becomes ever more unsteady.

Price of gas - why it's going up by OPEC President Chakib Khelil. [emphases added]

OPEC president says weak dollar, Iran crisis will drive oil prices to US$170

ALGERIA. OPEC President Chakib Khelil predicted that the price of oil will climb to US$170 a barrel before the end of the year, citing the dollar's decline and political conflicts.

--------------

The rising cost of crude is not linked to supply, Khelil told Bloomberg today. "There is more than enough oil in the market to meet the international demand," added the OPEC president.

Video - Ron Paul agrees. Price of oil linked to Iran saber-rattling.

Euro vs Dollar

A comparison of the Euro and the cost of a barrel of oil. Problem: As both have been rising,  the Euro was $1.00 when it was introduced in 1999, dropped to $0.8252 relative to the US dollar on 26 October 2000 and rose to $1.60 as of 23 April 2008, US costs for oil have risen faster than Europes' costs have.

Oil went from $35 a barrel in the fall of 2000, which was €42.41, to $118 in 2008. Because the Euro has also risen, Europe is only now paying €73.75. The US is paying a 237% increase but Europe is only paying a 74% increase.

The Iraq War vs the economy - are they two separate issues?

Iraq was originally expected to be the primary issue in the 2008 presidential election. Instead, opinion polls tend to show that it is the second most important issue, after the economy. That second place showing does not justify the decision of corporate television news to deep-six the Iraq story. It is still the number one issue for 25 percent of Americans, which is 75 million people. Moreover, as of last March 71% of Americans thought that the Iraq debacle was part of the reason for the bad economy, so when they name the latter as the most important issue a lot of them are rolling the two issues into one. [emphasis added]

So Iraq is still central to the campaign, and people are fooling themselves if they say otherwise. But it isn't playing out as expected.

Also, in the same post, we see that Obama's campaign is aligning itself with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who both would like to see a "calendar-based" as opposed to a "conditions-based" withdrawal of American troops from that country.

Update:

The government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has now aligned itself with the Obama campaign.

“U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes”

Price tag

17 Mar 08: Zachary Coile writes in the San Francisco Chronicle: "The United States has poured more than $500 billion into Iraq, mostly for military operations. But that figure is just a small piece of the much larger bill that taxpayers will pay in the future.

"Because the money for the war is being borrowed, interest payments could add another $615 billion. A heavily depleted military will have to be rebuilt at a cost of $280 billion. Disability benefits and health care for Iraq war veterans, many of them severely injured, could add another half-trillion dollars over their lifetime. . . .

"The price tag in Iraq now is more than double the cost of the Korean War and a third more expensive than the Vietnam War, which lasted 12 years. . . .

"Only World War II was more expensive. That four-year war - in which 16 million U.S. troops were deployed on two fronts, fighting against Germany and Japan - cost about $5 trillion in inflation-adjusted dollars."

Dave Lindorff explains why the Iraq War is driving the deficit and price of oil and food up.

Senate report (PDF) on the role of speculation in rising oil & gas prices.

Bad Money by Kevin Phillips. Subtitle: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism. In Bad Money, Phillips describes the consequences of our misguided economic policies, our mounting debt, our collapsing housing market, our threatened oil, and the end of American domination of world markets. [emphasis added]

More considerations

 

Think Progress » FLASHBACK: Economists Predicted That A Prolonged ...

The Iraq Recession. I do hope this sticks as the label. ..... Did prolonged U.S. presence in Iraq lead us into a recession? ... thinkprogress.org/2008/01/23/iraq-recession/ - 74k - Cached - Similar pages

 

BBC NEWS | Business | War with Iraq could spark recession

Any conflict with Iraq together with a spike in oil prices, could endanger the world's economic recovery and hit consumers in the pocket. news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2240551.stm - 55k - Cached - Similar pages

 

Between the Bits: Trying the war in Iraq to the recession

Trying the war in Iraq to the recession. There are some thoughts that while war is usually good for the economy, the war in Iraq has been incredibly bad for ... johnhummel.blogspot.com/2008/ 01/trying-war-in-iraq-to-recession.html - 54k - Cached - Similar pages

 

War News Good? Let's Create A Recession | Sweetness & Light

And behold a comparison of both Google searches and news reports for the terms “Iraq War” and “recession” via Google Trends: ... sweetness-light.com/archive/ war-news-good-lets-create-a-recession - 31k - Cached - Similar pages

Issues and Elections

http://www.scholarsandrogues.com/2008/01/16/getting-us-out-of-iraq-can-get-us- out-of-recession/. The article links to every way in which our American life ...
community.aarp.org/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=1& nav=messages&webtag=rp-issues&tid=53453 - 130k - Cached - Similar pages

Peace Action Coalition's summary of economic effects and further commentary on the Moratorium of March 19th

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Getting us out of Iraq can get us out of recession

http://www.scholarsandrogues.com/2008/01/16/getting-us-out-of-iraq-can-get-us-out-of-recession/

The American Prospect’s Harold Meyerson has an op-ed in the Washington Post today outlining the nature of the coming recession, and how our economic response is going to have to change if we’re to fix it.

“Wait,” you’re thinking, “is he saying we’re in recession? Surely not! I know it’s a worry, but no one’s actually said it’s official yet.”

Let’s take a look at the facts, then:

Citigroup, America’s largest bank, has been hit with a staggering $10 billion in losses this quarter. Naturally, the company is doing what all companies do as a first response to crisis–cutting thousands of jobs–and is begging foreign investors to pump cash into its reserves to keep it solvent.

Countrywide, America’s largest lender, reported spikes in delinquencies and foreclosures so severe that the company was looking at bankruptcy protection. It was hailed as a relief when Bank of America announced plans to buy the lender, but think about this–how bad is our economic state when our biggest giants in their respective industries are doing so poorly?

And what about the consumer, that bulwark of economic growth through spending? Well, thanks to a combination of collapsing home equity, high gas, energy, and food prices, and nearly insurmountable personal debt, consumers are falling behind on loan payments, credit card debt is on the rise, and retail sales are plummeting from lack of consumer spending.

If this isn’t a recession, it’s damn close, and like the wolf hungrily stalking its prey, will be upon us soon.

Back to Meyerson’s column. He accurately notes that the mazelike structures of current Wall Street investment strategies make it nigh-impossible to accurately oversee these transactions, which has led to so many billions of dollars’ worth of losses. Moreover, he also notes that without some serious infusion of jobs, cash, and direction from the government, this recession may deepen into a depression that will take years to recover from.

“Okay,” you may be asking, “but where can we get the money for such a thing? That’s going to be expensive!”

Well, here’s one simple idea–ending the war in Iraq immediately and bringing our troops home. Imagine what we could do with the influx of capital we’re wasting on a failed venture that has cost thousands of lives and tens of millions of dollars. I live in DC, so I used my own city as the basis for calculation:

Taxpayers in District Of Columbia will pay $2 billion for the cost of the Iraq War through 2007. For the same amount of money, the following could have been provided:

504,157 People with Health Care OR

3,465,229 Homes with Renewable Electricity OR

33,815 Public Safety Officers OR

33,333 Music and Arts Teachers OR

946,048 Scholarships for University Students OR

174 New Elementary Schools OR

6,801 Affordable Housing Units OR

620,958 Children with Health Care OR

266,133 Head Start Places for Children OR

33,333 Elementary School Teachers OR

29,432 Port Container Inspectors

Any one of these projects provides a golden opportunity for new jobs and economic revitalization for my city, or the even better long-term investment of raising kids with decent educations and the ability to make better lives for themselves. But we’ll never know, because that money went instead to turning a country into a protectorate of our empire just to keep the oil pumps working.

I said not long ago that in order to win, Democrats should run on the economy instead of Iraq, and I still hold to that. But I am rethinking that approach–instead of trying to push Iraq aside in people’s minds, Democrats and progressives should link the two together. Every dollar spent in Iraq, fighting a war started on a lie that has cost us immeasurably, is a dollar not spent on rebuilding our country’s prosperity, peace, and future solvency.

End the war, bring our troops home, and let’s get down to the equally painful business of rebuilding our country’s economic base and transiting us out from a system based on debt, consumption, greed, and graft. We’ve done it before, and we can do it again. We don’t have any choice in the matter.